Thursday, October 25, 2007

Runway Challenge Week 9

Not much news out of the Thursday teleconference. No decisions on whether Lawrence Green or Alex LaMagdelaine will start on the o-line. Same with injured Anthony Davis at fullback. Still about 1,000 tickets left for Saturday's game, which is looking more and more like another rainy day game.

Figured since UConn became bowl eligible last weekend, I'd take a look at the big picture and see just where the Huskies might end up for the holidays. Unlike Pitt last season, even a 6-6 record will get UConn a bid somewhere unless there's some major upheaval over the final month.

First, here's each team with their remaining schedule and my ultra-conservative predictions in parenthisis.

CINCINNATI (6-2, 1-2)
11/3: at South Florida (L)
11/10: UConn (L)
11/17: West Virginia (L)
11/24: at Syracuse (W)
Predicted record: 7-5 (2-5 Big East)

UCONN (6-1, 2-0)
10/27: South Florida (L)
11/3: Rutgers (L)
11/10: at Cincinnati (W)
11/17: Syracuse (W)
11/24: at West Virginia (L)
Predicted record: 8-4 (4-3)

LOUISVILLE (4-4, 1-2)
10/27: Pitt (W)
11/8: at West Virginia (L)
11/17: at South Florida (L)
11/29: Rutgers (W)
Predicted record: 6-6 (3-4)

PITTSBURGH (3-4, 1-1)
10/27: at Louisville (L)
11/3: Syracuse (W)
11/17: at Rutgers (L)
11/24: South Florida (L)
12/1: West Virginia (L)
Predicted record: 4-8 (2-5)

RUTGERS (5-2, 2-1)
10/27: West Virginia (L)
11/3: at UConn (W)
11/9: at Army (W)
11/17: Pitt (W)
11/29: at Louisville (L)
Predicted record: 8-4 (4-3)

SOUTH FLORIDA (6-1, 1-1)
10/27: at UConn (W)
11/3: Cincinnati (W)
11/10: at Syracuse (W)
11.17: Louisville (W)
11/24: at Pitt (W)
Predicted record: 11-1 (6-1)

SYRACUSE (2-5, 1-2)
11/3: at Pitt (L)
11/10: South Florida (L)
11/17: at UConn (L)
11/24: Cincinnati (L)
Predicted record: 2-9 (1-6)

WEST VIRGINIA (6-1, 1-1)
10/27: at Rutgers (W)
11/8: Louisville (W)
11/17: at Cincinnati (W)
11/24: UConn (W)
12/1: Pitt (W)
Predicted record: 11-1 (6-1)

Which would make the Big East standings as follows:
1. South Florida (6-1), wins tiebreaker, auto BCS
2. West Virginia (6-1), gets at-large BCS bid
3. Rutgers (4-3)
3 (tie). UConn (4-3)
5. Louisville (3-4)
6. Cincinnati (2-5)
6 (tie). Pitt (2-5)
8. Syracuse (1-6)

And the bowl shake out:

BCS

BCS National Championship game: LSU vs. Ohio State
Rose Bowl: Oregon vs. West Virginia
Orange Bowl: Boston College vs. South Florida
Sugar Bowl: Florida vs. Missouri
Fiesta: Oklahoma vs. Hawaii

The rest of the Big East:

Sun Bowl: Rutgers vs. UCLA
Meineke Car Care Bowl: UConn vs. Clemson
Papajohns.com Bowl: Cincinnati vs. Southern Mississippi
International Bowl: Louisville vs. Ball State

For UConn, best-case scenario is to win out and earn a BCS bid (odds: 100,000-1), more realistic best-case scenario: beat either Rutgers or South Florida in addition to Syracuse and Cincinnati, the Sun Bowl is looking good. Realistic worst-case scenario and worst-case scenario: The Huskies beat only Syracuse and lose the rest, or just lose the rest: International Bowl.

On to the weekly picks

Game 1: RUTGERS (+6) over West Virginia: Rutties won't be pushed around on their home field, especially in rare instances when its the underdog.

Game 2: LOUISVILLE (-11) over Pittsburgh: Panthers and Dave Wannestedt welcome the team and the coach that have kept them from being the biggest disappointment in the Big East Conference.

Game 3: OREGON (-3) over Southern California: The Mighty Ducks have dreams of national championship game. This could be the one that sends them quacking, I mean packing. Next week's game with Arizona State will be no picnic, either.

Game 4: Florida (-8.5) over Georgia (at Jacksonville): Not exactly a neutral site. Gators bounced back nicely against Kentucky, and should keep it rolling.

Game 5: South Florida (-4.5) over CONNECTICUT: Huskies are 6-1 against the spread this season, Temple being the lone hiccup. Why jinx them? You can thank me later.

Game 6: Virginia (-3) over NC STATE: Wolfpack have been blown out by every quality opponent they've faced this season. More telling: they only scored 10 points against the chunk of Swiss cheese that is the Louisville secondary. Cavs D is nasty (just ask UConn). No worries here.

Game 7: Kansas (-3) over TEXAS A&M: The Jayhawks may well be undefeated heading into the regular season finale against Missouri. Will their weak schedule be enough to propel them to national title game if they run the table?

Game 8: TENNESSEE (-3) over South Carolina: Was just starting to believe in the ol' ball coach until the stinker against Vandy. What was that all about?

Game 9: Ohio State (-4) over PENN STATE: Michigan loses to Appalachian State. Minnesota the worst team in Division I-A. JoePa in a road rage incident. Three Michigan State players knock off a store near East Lansing. The list goes on and on. What's going on in the Big 10?

Game 10: Cal (+3) over ARIZONA STATE: Golden Bears are overrated, but I don't think Sun Devils are going undefeated.

Game 11: North Carolina (+6) over WAKE FOREST: Demon Deacons just don't blow opponents out.

Get your picks in now by clicking "comments" at the end of this post.

Last week's results
1. Will L 10-5
2. Pete 9-6
Kevin 9-6
4. Caleb 8-7
detroittigershater 8-7
Dan 8-7
Sammy 8-7
SeanO's ghost 8-7
Mitch Kumpstein 8-7
P.J. 8-7
11. Ian 6-9
Vinny from East Haven 6-9
13. Chip 5-10
14. kooch 4-11

Overall standings
1. SeanO's ghost 54
2. Ian 53
3. Kooch 51
4. Sammy 49
5. Chip 48
6. Vinny from East Haven 46
7. Will L 44
8. DetroitTigersHater 43
9. Caleb Mandrake 42
10. Dan 41
11. Pete 37
Kevin 37
13. sturge-rock 22
14. Mitch Kumpstein 16
Alex 16
16. Steve P 8
P.J. 8

17 Comments:

Blogger Chip Malafronte said...

Chip's picks
Game 1: RUTGERS (+6) over West Virginia
Game 2: LOUISVILLE (-11) over Pittsburgh
Game 3: OREGON (-3) over Southern California
Game 4: Florida (-8.5) over Georgia (at Jacksonville)
Game 5: South Florida (-4.5) over CONNECTICUT
Game 6: Virginia (-3) over NC STATE
Game 7: Kansas (-3) over TEXAS A&M
Game 8: TENNESSEE (-3) over South Carolina
Game 9: Ohio State (-4) over PENN STATE
Game 10: Cal (+3) over ARIZONA STATE
Game 11: North Carolina (+6) over WAKE FOREST

October 25, 2007 3:16 PM 
Anonymous Sammy said...

Sammy's picks
Game 1: West Virginia
Game 2: Pittsburgh
Game 3: Southern California
Game 4: Florida
Game 5: CONNECTICUT
Game 6: Virginia
Game 7: Kansas
Game 8: TENNESSEE
Game 9: Ohio State
Game 10: ARIZONA STATE
Game 11: WAKE FOREST

October 25, 2007 4:29 PM 
Anonymous Layne Staley said...

Like how you thought it out. FYI, we would be tied for third with Rutgers and not fourth under that scenario. The Big East does not break ties for anything other than the conference champion in reference to who represents the league in the BCS. All other tied spots are kept as such.

October 25, 2007 5:02 PM 
Anonymous SeanO'sGhost said...

Chip,

Question on your 6-6 scenario: If UConn loses its last five games to go 6-6 why are they a certaintly to go to a bowl game?

With five straight losses who would want them? If there are other teams that get hot to finish 6-6 certainly they would be more attractive and do you think anyone from the state would travel to see them after a 0-5 collapse down the stretch?

Miss ya,
SeanO'sGhost

October 25, 2007 5:50 PM 
Blogger Chip Malafronte said...

SeanO,

I guess nothing is guaranteed, but it's close. Louisville has to play its rear end off just to become bowl-eligible. If they don't get there, the Big East may not have enough to fill all the slots should WV and USF both get BCS. If that's the case, I don't think Toronto or Birmingham will have a choice even if the Huskies go 6-6.

Hey ghost, we might need you to head over and cover Yale hockey this weekend.

Don't forget your picks?

October 25, 2007 6:30 PM 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Chip,
Wouldn't you say UConn is the best 4-3 team you've ever seen? Apologizing to Louisville after the fact is a step better than what happened to Temple, but the fact remains, UConn lost both games.

October 25, 2007 6:32 PM 
Anonymous Pete said...

Game 1: West Virginia
Game 2: LOUISVILLE
Game 3: Southern California
Game 4: Florida
Game 5: CONNECTICUT
Game 6: Virginia
Game 7: Kansas
Game 8: TENNESSEE
Game 9: Ohio State
Game 10: Cal
Game 11: WAKE FOREST

October 25, 2007 6:34 PM 
Blogger DetroitTigersHater said...

Game 1: West Virginia
Game 2: LOUISVILLE
Game 3: Southern California
Game 4: Florida - World's largest outdoor cocktail party!!!!!!!!
Game 5: South Florida
Game 6: Virginia
Game 7: TEXAS A&M
Game 8: South Carolina
Game 9: Ohio State
Game 10: ARIZONA STATE - I smell the first Rose Bowl since Jake Plummer for my Devils. Pitch forks are flying.
Game 11: WAKE FOREST

October 25, 2007 8:05 PM 
Anonymous SeanO'sGhost said...

What, no Yale-Columbia line???

Game 1: RUTGERS
Game 2: Pittsburgh
Game 3: Southern California
Game 4: Florida
Game 5: CONNECTICUT
Game 6: Virginia
Game 7: Kansas
Game 8: South Carolina
Game 9: Ohio State
Game 10: Cal
Game 11: WAKE FOREST

October 25, 2007 9:51 PM 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Caleb Mandrake's picks
Game 1: RUTGERS
Game 2: Pittsburgh
Game 3: Southern California
Game 4: Florida
Game 5: South Florida
Game 6: Virginia
Game 7: TEXAS A&M
Game 8: TENNESSEE
Game 9: Ohio State
Game 10: ASU
Game 11: WAKE FOREST

October 26, 2007 12:00 AM 
Anonymous kooch said...

West Virginia
LOUISVILLE
OREGON
Georgia
South Florida
Virginia
TEXAS A&M
South Carolina
PENN STATE
ARIZONA STATE
WAKE FOREST

Kooch

October 26, 2007 9:16 AM 
Blogger Sturge-Rock said...

Eric's picks
Game 1: RUTGERS over West Virginia
Game 2: LOUISVILLE over Pittsburgh
Game 3: Southern California over Oregon
Game 4: Florida over Georgia
Game 5: South Florida over CONNECTICUT
Game 6: Virginia over NC STATE
Game 7: TEXAS A&M over Kansas
Game 8: TENNESSEE over South Carolina
Game 9: Ohio State over PENN STATE
Game 10: ARIZONA STATE over Cal
Game 11: WAKE FOREST over North Carolina
Go Huskies!

October 26, 2007 9:59 AM 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Mitch
Game 1: RUTGERS
Game 2: Pittsburgh
Game 3: OREGON
Game 4: Georgia
Game 5: CONNECTICUT
Game 6: Virginia
Game 7: Kansas
Game 8: TENNESSEE
Game 9: Ohio State
Game 10: Cal
Game 11: North Carolina

October 26, 2007 10:54 AM 
Anonymous Luc said...

Game 1: West Virginia
Game 2: Pittsburgh
Game 3: OREGON
Game 4: Florida
Game 5: South Florida
Game 6: Virginia
Game 7: TEXAS A&M
Game 8: South Carolina
Game 9: PENN STATE
Game 10: Cal
Game 11: WAKE FOREST

October 26, 2007 2:41 PM 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

West Virginia:

LOUISVILLE

Southern California:

Florida

CONNECTICUT:

Virginia

TEXAS A&M:

South Carolina:

Ohio State

Cal

WAKE FOREST:

Will L

October 26, 2007 8:16 PM 
Anonymous Vinny From East Haven said...

Vinny's picks:
1. West Virginia
2. Louisville
3. Southern Cal
4. Florida
5. South Florida (of course)
6. N.C. State
7. Kansas
8. South Carolina
9. Penn State
10. Cal
11. North Carolina

October 27, 2007 11:00 AM 
Blogger Ian said...

Game 1: West Virginia
Game 2: LOUISVILLE
Game 3: OREGON (-3)
Game 4: Florida (-8.5)
Game 5: South Florida (-4.5
Game 6: Virginia (-3)
Game 7: Kansas (-3)
Game 8: South Carolina
Game 9: Ohio State (-4)
Game 10: ARIZONA STATE
Game 11: North Carolina

October 27, 2007 1:16 PM 

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