Runway Challenge Week 12

To update from our Thursday call with Edsall: there's nothing to update. No injuries this week, the quarterback situation is the same. A game-time announcement. "It's still Cody and Zach. Or Zach and Cody. However you want to put it." Tyler Lorenzen likely isn't part of the equation, even though Edsall's answer was "I don't know" when asked.

Here's my updated bowl projections. Things have changed slightly, and I think Cincinnati will get the Big East's BCS bid. UConn is looking like a god bet for either Birmingham or Toronto. Toronto gets first crack, and I'm betting they'll take Pitt only because it should be the higher-ranked team. Obviously, the Huskies need to beat Syracuse Saturday, because if they finish 6-6 (2-5 in conference) they could be the team being shipped off to whatever non-Big East bowl has a vacancy.

A key game on Saturday is Notre Dame-Navy. If the Irish win, it gets them bowl eligible and, more importantly, puts them in line for the all-important seventh win against Syracuse the following week. Some things to keep in mind: there is nothing contractually to keep the Gator Bowl from taking Notre Dame as long as the Irish are bowl eligible. I've gotten emails stating there are conflicting reports about this, but I have confirmed that there is no two win rule, no clauses.

However, Gator Bowl president Rick Catlett said today in the Omaha World-Herald, "we'd never take a 6-6 Notre Dame team." But if the Irish get to 7-5, despite the Gator having never taken a five-loss team before, I think there's no doubt they go to Jacksonville. If Notre Dame loses to Navy, its looking at a 6-6 finish (as long as the Irish don't upset USC). This means the Gator passes on the Big East and grabs a Big 12 team (likely Nebraska), hoping for Notre Dame next season. In this scenario, the Sun Bowl would have to take a Big East team (likely West Virginia), per contract, and the Big East would have to play the Notre Dame game with the Gator all over again next season.

Here's how I see it playing out:

UCONN (6-3, 2-2)
11/15: at Syracuse (W)
11/23: at South Florida (L)
12/6: Pittsburgh (L)
Predicted record: 7-5 (3-4)

CINCINNATI (7-2, 3-1)
11/14: at Louisville (W)
11/22: Pittsburgh (W)
11/29: Syracuse (W)
12/6: at Hawaii (W)
Predicted record: 11-2 (6-1)

PITTSBURGH (7-2, 3-1)
11/22: at Cincinnati (L)
11/28: West Virginia (L)
12/6: at UConn (W)
Predicted record: 8-4 (4-3)


SYRACUSE (2-7, 1-4)
11/15: UConn (L)
11/22: at Notre Dame (L)
11/29: at Cincinnati (L)
Predicted record: 2-10 (1-6)

WEST VIRGINIA (6-3, 3-1)
11/22: at Louisville (W)
11/28: at Pittsburgh (W)
12/6: South Florida (W)
Predicted record: 9-3 (6-1)

SOUTH FLORIDA (6-3, 1-3)
11/15: Rutgers (W)
11/23: UConn (W)
12/6: at West Virginia (L)
Predicted record: 8-4 (3-4)

LOUISVILLE (5-4, 1-3)
11/14: Cincinnati (L)
11/22: West Virginia (L)
12/4: at Rutgers (L)
Predicted record: 5-7 (1-6)

RUTGERS (4-5, 3-2)
11/15: at South Florida (L)
11/22: Army (W)
12/4: Louisville (W)
Predicted record: 6-6 (4-3)


Which would make the Big East standings:
1. Cincinnati 11-2 (6-1)
2. West Virginia 9-3 (6-1)
3. Pitt 8-4 (4-3)
Rutgers 6-6 (4-3)
5. UConn 7-5 (3-4)
USF 8-4 (3-4)
7. Louisville 5-7 (1-6)
Syracuse 2-10 (1-6)


And the Big East bowl shake-out (this is also the order the bowls choose):

Orange Bowl: Cincinnati vs. Florida State
Gator Bowl: Notre Dame vs. Miami
Meineke Car Care Bowl: West Virginia vs. Wake Forest
International Bowl: Pitt vs. Western Michigan
PapaJohns.com Bowl: UConn vs. Troy (SEC doesn't have enough to fill slot)
St. Petersburg Bowl: South Florida vs. UTEP
New Mexico Bowl: Rutgers vs. Air Force

On to the weekly picks.

Game 1: Notre Dame (-3.5) over NAVY - Charlie Weis will now be known across the land as Pear Bryant. Case closed. Thank you, Jason Whitlock.

Game 2: SYRACUSE (+10) over Connecticut - Unless Donald Brown tops 200 yards rushing or the Huskies force four or more turnovers, 10 points is too many. Of course, both of those are entirely attainable.

Game 3: OREGON STATE (-3) over California - Beavers tailback Jaquizz Rogers is electric. And, a little known fact, my middle name is Jaquizz.

Game 4: OREGON (-3.5) over Arizona - A duck against a wildcat? That's not even a fair fight. But I'm taking Oregon anyway.

Game 5: Georgia (-8.5) over AUBURN - My middle name isn't really Jaquizz. It's John. But, I'm going with Jaquizz for the next several months.

Game 6: Brigham Young (-5) over AIR FORCE - The Air Force hockey team is 8-0 and ranked 13th in the nation. This is amazing because the service academies don't accept Canadian students. U.S. hockey, alive and well.

Game 7: FLORIDA (-23) over South Carolina - The ol' ball coach is putting together a nice season. But the Gators might just be the best team in the country.

Game 8: Southern California (-23.5) over STANFORD -

Game 9: Rutgers (+8) over SOUTH FLORIDA -

Game 10: Boston College (+6) over FLORIDA STATE - Football players allegedly causing off-campus trouble at Florida State? Who could have seen that coming?

Game 11: Ohio State (-9.5) over ILLINOIS -

Game 12: Minnesota (+13.5) over WISCONSIN - The real question is, how many pounds of sausage will be consumed in the parking lot? 1,000? 10,000? 1 million? Get your defibrillators charged.

Game 13: North Carolina (-3) over MARYLAND - Kid Rock performed his god-awful new song "All Summer Long" at the Country Music Awards last night. Not that I watched the show (I'd rather chew on tinfoil), but I've heard the song several times over the last month or so. Look, the only person who should be allowed to rewrite lyrics to popular songs is Weird Al Yankovic.

Game 14: WEST CHESTER (-7) over Southern Connecticut State - Fourth straight NCAA Division II tournament appearance for Southern. Yes, college football tournaments are possible. Thanks, Division I-AA, Division II and Division III.

Game 15: YALE (-3.5) over Princeton - Bulldogs pulled the upset over Brown. Ivy hopes for Yale still hanging by a thread.

Last week's results
1. vinny from east haven 8-3
big donny bertolotti 8-3
pete 8-3
4. dougo 7-4
uconnhuskies 86 7-4
sammy 7-4
kevin 7-4
wil 7-4
9. gary 6-5
sean o 6-5
caleb mandrake 6-5
12. rich 5-6
den 5-6
JZ 5-6
15. chip 4-7
dano 4-7
ian 4-7

standings
1. Dougo 66
2. Caleb Mandrake 64
Vinny from East Haven 64
4. Pete 62
5. JZ 60
6. Rich 59
7. ian 58
kevin 58
Chip 58
10. Den of Stupidity 56
11. Sammy 51
12. Sean O 50
13. DanO 48
14. Wil 47
15. Gary 42
16. uconnhuskies 86 41
17. Big Donny Bertolotti 21
Stretch 21
19. HuskyBarker 5

Get your picks in by clicking "comments" below.